The Iran War So Far

Via The Whitehouse

Early on Saturday 28^th February, the United States and Israel began their bombing campaign of Iran as part of Operation Epic Fury. These initial strikes were particularly destructive as they claimed the lives of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well a total of 48 Iranian leaders in one strike - as per a statement by Trump. This attack has erupted the region into significant conflict, as Iran has expanded the conflict by striking territory and/or military bases owned by Bahrain, France, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Syria, UAE, United Kingdom and United States. This article will serve to recap some of the major events and significant reported casualties across the conflict so far.

Iran:

As expected, Iran has suffered the most significant destruction from any country in this list. The US and Israel have claimed responsibility for striking key leadership figures across the country. Most notably, this includes: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Army Chief of Staff General Mousavi, Defence Minister Nasirzadeh, Major General Pakpour and Shamkhani, a top security adviser to Khamenei. Iranian media confirms that these strikes also killed members of Khamenei’s immediate family, whilst the IDF claims to have also killed the heads of the Military Bureau, Intelligence Directorate of the Khatam al Anbiya emergency command, SPND (Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research) and Reza Mozaffari-Nia, a former head of SPND and former deputy defence minister. Iran has convened a Council of Experts in the city of Qom, in order to appoint a new Supreme Leader for the country. However, Israel has also struck the building in which the votes were being counted. It is not clear how many of the council’s 88 members were present at the time. It has now been reported that Khamenei’s eldest son Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei has been elected as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Trump has made it no secret that he seeks regime change, although there is doubt about who would be picked to lead Iran in the case of an American victory. One of the more obvious choices is Iran’s exiled Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi. Pahlavi has lived in exile in the United States since 1979, and has said that he is uniquely placed to lead a transitional government as he cannot be associated with the revolution. Trump has announced doubts about Pahlavi, suggesting that someone already inside Iran would be more appropriate, although no alternatives have been named.

The Iranian Red Cresent Society has stated that at least 787 people have been killed since attacks have begun, with 153 counties effected and at least 1,039 attacks recorded in the country. Although, preliminary reports suggest that it is now as much as 1,045 dead. The deadliest single strike in Iran hit a girl’s school in Minab, Southern Iran, with many of the 153+ deaths being children. Israel has also taken responsibility for hitting Iran’s Natanz Nuclear Facility, as well as Min Zadai – an alleged clandestine nuclear site outside Tehran. Attacks on these sites were a priority for the US and Israel, who used it as a pretext for the war to start with. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have also effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, beginning an economic crisis as this disruption affects approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and a significant amount of liquified natural gas (LNG). Trump has released a statement suggesting that the US Navy may begin to escort ships out of the Gulf to ease surging energy prices and economic uncertainty following the rising price of oil.

Trump has also expressed interest in supporting armed militias in Iran. It has also been reported that Kurdish forces in Western Iran have been secretly supplied with weapons smuggled into the country over the last year. Kurdish leaders have requested American/Israeli air support for this operation, although no approval has formally been provided. It is expected that Iraqi Kurdish leaders will be more cautious in joining any explicit conflict against Iran, following Iran’s firm armed response against any nation that they deem hostile, or to be supporting US/Israeli forces.

Israel:

Israel has been a huge player in the war against Iran, inflicting a huge number of strikes alongside the US. They have taken credit for their role in the assassination of Khamenei, as well as other leadership figures, and continue to strike Iranian cities and military bases. Israeli Defence Minister Katz stated that Israel will continue to target Iranian officials as a part of their decapitation doctrine under Operation Roaring Lion. In terms of casualties, Israel has reported that 10 civilians have been killed, 9 of which were struck by an Iranian missile on Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem on 1^st March. The IDF have reported no military casualties so far.

Gulf States:

Perhaps in a bid for survival, Iran has chosen to employ strikes across many of the Arab Gulf States as a means to generate international pressure to dissuade a prolonged conflict by exploiting their vulnerability. As such, Iran fired roughly as many missiles at these Gulf States as it did at Israel during their first wave of strikes, stating that any nation aiding Israel or the US will be deemed a legitimate target. Key US bases and embassies were targeted, as well as civilian and economic sites. Iran has struck US embassies in Riyadh and Kuwait, as well as a US Consulate in Dubai. A $1.1bn US Radar system in Qatar was also destroyed by Iranian strikes. A French naval base in Abu Dhabi was also targeted, although no casualties have been reported.

On 2^nd March, Kuwaiti F/A-18 aircraft shot down three US F-15E Strike Eagles in a friendly fire incident. An investigation has been launched into what has happened, but it has been reported that all US pilots ejected safely. Luxury hotels and the international airport in Dubai have also been targeted by Iranian drones, in a move to economically strike the UAE by targeting tourism directly. The UAE Ministry of Defence has now claimed to have intercepted 876 of 941 Iranian drones, as well as 8 cruise missiles. The UAE, as well as the other Gulf States have affirmed their right to respond to this escalation. For instance, Qatar has downed two Iranian SU-24 fighter jets, whilst there are also conflicting reports about Qatar striking Iran directly.

In terms of economic Impact, Iran has struck several LNG facilities, gas fields and oil refineries. Qatar have announced that they are suspending their LNG production, which constitutes about 20% of the global production. This closure will take about a month to restart, suggesting that the energy shocks of the conflict will be longer lasting, even if the conflict would cease soon.

Lebanon:

Initially, Hezbollah had abstained from involvement in the conflict with Israel and the United States, but quickly became involved once Khamenei had been assassinated. As such, Hezbollah began to launch drones and missiles at Israel and RAF Akrotiri. Israel quickly responded here by launching sweeping strikes and a ground invasion into Southern Lebanon. Notably, Israel claims to have killed Hussein Makled, Hezbollah’s head of intelligence in this strike. Additionally, Lebanon’s government have implemented a ban on Hezbollah – which will be especially difficult to enforce in practice. At the same time, Syria has also worked to reinforce its border with Lebanon with thousands of troops. This serves as an attempt to prevent Hezbollah members from infiltrating Syria during the conflict.

United States:

President Trump gave a statement on the 28^th February, suggesting that the US Military will engage Iran in order to destroy their missiles, missile industry, navy, nuclear programme and regional proxies. So far, the US military have delivered devastating strikes against Iran, in cooperation with Israel, with US Defence Secretary stating that “America is winning decisively”. Trump has set a provisional 4–5-week timeline for the war, although the true length will depend on how significantly the war expands across the Middle East region.

The US CENTCOM has claimed to have destroyed 17 Iranian ships, with some of the more high-profile strikes occurring on the 4^th March. A US Navy submarine was used to sink the IRIS DENA off the coast of Sri Lanka, where it was returning from the multinational MILAN 2026 naval exercises in India. The ship was carrying approximately 180 sailors, with Sri Lankan rescue services saving 32 people and recovering 87 bodies. The remaining sailors are still missing. In Iran, the US has significantly damaged air defences and missile sites across the country, claiming air superiority alongside Israel. NATO air defences have also intercepted an Iranian missile fired towards Turkey, marking a significant escalation of the conflict.

The US have so far lost 6 soldiers, with 10 soldiers suffering from severe injuries. Iran will likely push for more American casualties, as a means of further reducing the American political will for the war. US strikes in Iran are already overwhelmingly unpopular amongst the American public, with just one in four Americans backing the strikes against Iran. A prolonged war is far different from the previous quick strikes that Trump employed against Soleimani in 2020, or against Iran’s nuclear programme in 2025.

Europe:

European nations had notably avoided taking part in the conflict against Iran on the 28^th February, much to the frustration of the United States. Most notably, the United Kingdom initially refused the US access to its military bases in Cyprus and Diego Garcia, although Kier Starmer has released a statement on the 2^nd March stating that the US will now be granted full access to UK bases. This hesitation is likely due to the British public being overwhelmingly against involvement in the War, even if this is only to allow the US access to UK bases. Trump has also criticised Starmer here, casting doubt on the UK-US relationship. Since allowing access, the UK’s RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus has been targeted with several drones, likely sent by Hezbollah. The first drone struck the base, causing no casualties and minimum damage, with two other drones being intercepted successfully. As a result, the UK has deployed HMS Duncan and HMS Dragon, alongside helicopters with counter-drone capabilities, to Cyprus to reinforce the RAF base. Greece has also deployed HS Kimon, HS Psara and four F-16 Viper jets to Cyprus, which have already began engaging drones West of Cyprus. Germany and France have also planned to send warships to Cyprus, with France sending their Charles de Gaulle nuclear aircraft carrier from the Baltic to the Mediterranean, escorted by its air wing and Frigates. France, Germany and the United Kingdom have also issued a joint statement on the matter:

“The Leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom are appalled by the indiscriminate and disproportionate missile attacks launched by Iran against countries in the region, including those who were not involved in initial US and Israeli military operations. Iran’s reckless attacks have targeted our close allies and are threatening our service personnel and our civilians across the region. We call on Iran to stop these reckless attacks immediately.

We will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source. We have agreed to work together with the US and allies in the region on this matter.”

Spain have notably blocked the US access to use their military bases, citing a lack of desire to involve themselves in the conflict. Trump responded quickly with a call to halt all trade with Spain, a move meant to create economic pressure. However, as an EU member it is not easy to exclude them whilst also upholding existing trade agreements.

Ukraine obviously has a huge amount of experience combating Iran’s Shahed-126 drones, having fought off approximately 57,000 since 2022, and have offered to send advisors to the Middle East to support struggling Gulf States with intercepting Iranian drones. In return, Zelenskyy has urged the Gulf States to use their influence over Russia to press for a one-month ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia has a lot to gain from a prolonged US-Iran war, with energy prices surging and a diversion of Western Aid to the Middle East and away from Ukraine.

This article is not an exhaustive list, nor does it try to be. Information and new updates are constantly coming out as the situation develops. You are encouraged to do your own research.